Giants v. Diamondbacks, Giants v. Reds

The G-Men are now 43 and 51 and 6.5 games back in the NL West Greetings to all of our friends who love the two-time World Champion SF Giants! This is it, the second half of the season. The last two months (since about May 15^th when Pagan went down) have been the worst Giants baseball since the mid-1980’s. 2 and 18 in the last 20 games before taking three out of four from Padres on the road in San Diego (which included Timmy’s no-no), probably the worst BA in the majors, the most men LOB, the worst defense and the most inconsistent pitching. If you can’t score runs, play defense or pitch you are not going to win ball games.

Why was this happening?  Injuries are one factor. I talked about this in the last blog. Scutaro’s back and finger, Crawford’s finger, Pagan’s hamstring (maybe Pagan will be back in September?), Panda’s weight, Casilla’s oblique, Aria’s hamstring and Sanchez’s whatever.

Well, in the second half we expect Casilla back (on Sunday), the Panda has been looking a bit slimmer (maybe it was an optical illusion but he played some really good D in San Diego), Crawford looks back to normal and has started hitting, Scutaro is steady and we expect Vogelsong back at the end of July.

Another factor (besides healing up) is that the Giants play most of their second half games at home, where they are still 5 games over .500.

In my view the next ten games will tell us whether or not the G-Men are buyers or sellers at the July 31^st trade deadline.  Sabean has already said that he isn’t trading Timmy (who has the most value of the Giants) and Cain and Bumgarner are untouchable.  Lopez on the other hand is vulnerable if the price is right (Atlanta is desperate for the left-handed reliever – who is in their farm system?).  The Panda also has value but only for a good starting pitcher to replace Zito (of course if Vogelsong comes back strong Gaudin could back to long relief).

If the Giants lose the three upcoming series (the Snakes, Reds and Cubs), or even two out of three, I suspect that Sabean will go into rebuilding mode.  However if the G-Men play over .500 (maybe 7 out of 10?) then they might be buyers. Sabean has made moves at the trade deadline before. In 2011 he got Keppinger and Beltran and last year he got Pence so expect something to happen.

So, these games are incredibly important and I expect each one to be a sell-out.

The Positives

The Giants have made some good moves. They brought up Tanaka, who is a really smooth player and who might be a factor because he is so versatile.  He looks and plays like Ichiro and was a Japanese All-Star (he’s 32 and hungry and he gave up a big contract in Japan to try to make it in the show – you have to love the attitude and confidence) . He is certainly a better player than Shinjo (remember him, of the neon orange armbands?). They also picked up Jeff Francoeur who, while well-traveled (Atlanta, the Mets and then the Royals) is a really solid defensive player who has hit for power in the past. He sucked with the Royals but maybe the change in scenery will do him good.  I’ve always liked him and he allows Boche to platoon Torre and Blanco in center, which plays to their strengths.

All in all this makes for a solid team.

On the pitching side, Bumgarner is money and Timmy seems to be finding his groove. Gaudin has been solid (the Las Vegas arrest notwithstanding) and with Casilla back in the 8^th inning maybe Affleldt will relax.  The G-Men bullpen is actually pretty good but has been overworked.

When they are clicking the infield of Crawford, Scutaro and Belt is solid. Tanaka is listed now as the utility infielder, which is pretty cool because he looked good in left field also. Belt has been hitting with power and may finally be coming into his own and Pence (as wildly streaky as he has been) is capable of carrying a team if he gets hot.

Finally, Buster Posey.  He is one hell of a player and worth coming to watch all by himself.  He’s Bonds without the attitude.

The Negatives

Matt Cain looks lost.. Maybe he can find his groove in the second half but he lasted on one inning in his last start at home. Barry Zito cannot win outside of AT&T.  Thankfully most of the second half games are at home but, regardless, this is his last year as a Giant.

The biggest negative is bad attitude. If the Giants believe that they can win they will. It starts with Boche. Keep your fingers crossed.

What Can the Giants do?  Is there any hope?

Yes, there is hope.  This team won 2 out of the last 3 world series.  That alone earned them the right to be watched no matter what else happens.  I’ll take finishing out of the playoffs every other year for a world series in the other years. The Giants of 51 came from 13 games down on August 15^th of that year to tie the Dodgers, win a sudden death playoff and go to the world series.  The 62 Giants did the same thing.  Last year this same team won two sudden death playoff series when they were down to their last game, and then swept the world series. Until the G-Men are mathematically eliminated, they are in it.

Also, I have to point that the Dodgers are getting back into their insufferable mode; arrogant, testy, full of themselves and, what’s the word for it?  Oh yes, assholes (especially that hot dog Puig, there isn’t enough mustard in California for that guy). At the very least if we keep the best team that money can buy out of the playoff’s the season will have been worth it. Rooting for the Dodgers is like rooting for Voldemort.

The Series to come

The Snakes are In first place in the NL West. If the Gigantes sweep, they will be 3 ½ out. If they take 2 out of 3, they will be 4 ½ out. Arizona is steady.  They are 5 games over .500 and won 6 out of their last ten games.  They are 23 and 25 on the road so they are vulnerable. Who comes out of the gate hungrier will decide this series.

The Reds are 11 games OVER .500 but still in 3^rd place (5 back) in the incredibly hot NL Central. They are full of All-Star hitters (Joey Votto and Jay Bruce among them) and pitchers like Homer Bailey (who no-hit the G-Men earlier this month).  The Reds are the real test and Dusty Baker likes nothing better than doing it to the G-Men at home.

The Cubs are in 4^th place in the NL Central (15 games back) and are going to be sellers for sure, so they will be showing off their trade bait, Matt Garza for sure and probably Soriano, Rameriz and, yes, Schierholtz. That will be an entertaining series, more important for the Giants than the Cubs I expect.

That's it. The clock is on.

Ciao, and GO GIANTS!

Giants v. Mets

The G-Men are now 39 and 45 and 4 ½ games back in the NL West  This is one of the saddest blogs that I’ve written in a long time.  I’m currently watching the first game of the Dodger’s series at home following the season’s second road trip from hell, this one even worse than the earlier one.  The G-Men were 1 win and 9 losses in the last 10 games, are 15-30 on the road and over the last two months have been the worst team in the major leagues after being swept by the Dodgers in LA, losing 2 out of 3 to the Rockies in Denver and losing 3 out of 4 to the Reds in Cincinnati.  The only reason they didn’t lose 4 out of 4 was because the 4^th of July game was rained out (we count that as a victory of sorts). It’s hard to be upbeat when Matt Cain can’t even make it through the 3^rd inning and the Dodgers are celebrating an early 8 to 1 lead, which is the current situation.

The Positives

The only positives that I know of is that the Giants are only 4 ½ games out, Buster Posey continues to hit like the All-Star and the MVP he is and Bumgarner (the pride of North Carolina) is pretty much solid as a rock (although some run support would be helpful).

Everything else pretty much sucks.  Except for Posey, the core hitters (Scutero, Blanco, Sandoval, Crawford, Pence and Torres) are 6 for 127 over the last ten games.  That is pathetic. Blanco even struck out hacking at a pitch that bounced 2 feet in front of the plate. That’s how anxious and out of sorts the hitters are. I’d talk about tonight being the first time in 15 games that the Giants had a first inning run but that pales beside the utter failure to hit with men in scoring position.

The headlines asked if the G-Men had hit rock bottom after being no-hit by Bailey in Cincinnati: no, it’s getting worse and watching the Dodger’s high-five each other is worse.

The pitchers can’t hit their spots, the hitters are the worst they have been probably since 1985 (remember, when the Giants lost 100 games before Will Clark came up in 1986), the bullpen is worn out and the defense is making errors (physical and mental). I’d talk about power numbers but there aren’t any: home runs have been few and far between. It’s depressing.

The Negatives

First, see above.

We should mention injuries because the G-Men are about as beat up as a team can be.  Crawford’s hand, Scutero’s back, Arias’s hamstring, Pagan’s hamstring (which is so bad he’s probably out for the season), Vogelsong’s hand, Gaudin’s hand, Casilla’s oblique and Zito’s inability to pitch anywhere else than AT&T (that would be a mental injury). If there is any team that needs a serious break it’s the Gigantes.

Of all the injuries Pagan’s might be the one that most affected the team. He was the top of the order hitter and the sparkplug.  It seems like the air went out of the team when he went down (on his game-ending walk off inside the park home run – I was there; maybe the high point of this season).

What Can the Giants do?  Is there any hope?

We are only half-way through the season and 4 and ½ games out.  In 1951 the Giants came from 13 ½  games down on August 15^th to tie the Dodgers and get into the World Series.  In 1962 the Giants of Mays, McCovey, Marichal and Perry were 4 games down with 6 to play and pulled even on the last day of the season and won a three game playoff with the Dodgers.  So, is it over?  No, as Pence pointed out in Animal House, was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?  NO.  Think about the playoff’s last year. On cold nights always remember the Buster Posey Grand Slam against Mat Latos.

Of course you all understand that I’m reviewing history because we have to believe, and we do. We came through Candlestick, the Earthquake series, the 100 loss season, the crushing loss to the Monkey-rally Angels in 2002 and having the Dodger’s knock us out of the playoff’s in 2004 on Steve Finlay’s 9^th inning walk-off grand slam following a Cody Ransom error that would have been the third out and a playoff qualifying victory (I was there for that also – in LA).  It’s not time to wear paper bags over our head yet.

My suggestion is that we trade for Alex Rios (we need another outfielder, one that can hit with power) and a starting pitcher; maybe Nolasco or even Jake Peavy, all with large contracts and available for next year (might as well think about that).  Then we send Lincecum to the bullpen where I think that he will thrive (think John Smoltz), Panda to the bench until he loses some weight and stop thinking about the post-season (we may not be there but we can certainly play better ball then we are right  now).

The guys to watch are Buster Posey, who will have a monster second half and may carry the team by himself and Brandon Belt who is very close to being the big bopper that the G-Men thought he could be. Look for Gaudin to be a solid fourth or fifth starter, look for Cain to get his head on straight after the All-Star break and look for Vogelsong to stabilize the pitchers when he comes back.

The Series to come

The Dodgers are glorying in their rookie, Puig, who has singlehandedly turned their season around in a month (I personally find it offensive that the LA papers think that Puig should go to the All-Star game after a month in the majors - but that is very LA). Tomorrow Bumgarner pitches and Sunday it will be Gaudin against Kershaw.  It would be very nice to take the next two games, although the current 10 to 2 shellacking that the Dodgers are putting on the Giants is no fun. Other than that I really do not want to talk about the Dodgers.  They are the best team that money can buy and as full of themselves as the Yankees of old.  Remember that we are only half way through the season.

The question is whether or not we can get healthy on the Mets before the desperately needed All-Star break. The Mets are in 4^th place in the NL East, 12 games out and seemingly counting the days until the break, although they just got Ike Davis back and are currently wiping up the floor with the Brewers (12 to 5).  We will be seeing David Wright, a lock for the All-Star game with a .305 BA and a great attitude and, if the Mets rotation holds, we will see Zach Wheeler (who we lost in the Beltran trade) pitching on Wednesday. It will be a “what could have been” moment.

Ciao, and GO GIANTS!

Giants v. Padres; Giants v. Diamondbacks

The G-Men after 15 or so games It’s very early in the season but never too early to start worrying. The G-Men came out of the gate pretty well (they have won every series until the last one) and are currently 9 and 7, but are third in the NL West after being swept by the Brewers in Milwaukee over the last three days. The hot team right now is the Rockies (they are supposedly no pitching but great hitting – however they have had both great pitching and good hitting so far and they are pounding every team they are playing). The Diamondbacks are second in the NL West at 8 and 6 and the Dodgers and the Padres are both below .500.

The G-Men have had problems on the mound and at the plate.  Currently the hitter with the best batting average on the team is Barry Zito, which says something (I’m not sure exactly what).  Buster is at .213 and can’t find his stroke, Belt got the flu early in the season, lost weight and still can’t seem to get untracked (hitting .170?)  The highlight reel guys are Brandon Crawford (who really is looking like the reincarnation of Cal Ripken Jr. and is batting .352) and, of course, Hunter Pence. Who would have believed that Pence would have already had 4 dingers and Crawford 3.

The solid players are the Panda, Scutero, Pagan and the new guy (Nick Noonan) who is really turning heads (although his shortstop range needs work).  The good news is that there have been comeback wins, the team is grinding and they are over .500.

The bad news is that the starting pitchers are looking vulnerable (except Bumgarner , who has a 1.77 ERA and is the star of the staff). Who would have believed that Matt Cain would have a 7.15 ERA after 5 starts (and no victories), that Barry Zito would have a 4.86 ERA and 2 wins (the ERA is mostly due to a REALLY bad inning in Milwaukee, almost matching Cain’s REALLY bad inning in the Cubs game last week).  Vogelsong isn’t doing much better with a 5.89 ERA.

The bullpen has been pretty solid; only one blown save by Romo and the only real injury so far is Affeldt (strained oblique) who is on the DL.  Affeldt’s injury did affect the bullpen rotation, which may have cost the game yesterday (although Zito’s giving up 7 runs in the second inning didn’t help matters much).

This home series against two NL West teams should be a real test.  The Padres are last in the NL West and are a classic “rebuilding team” but they are dangerous. I don’t know when Chase Headley is due off the DL but when he comes back the Padres offense gets dangerous again.  Also, the Padres staff ERA, it should be pointed out, is lower than the Giants.  Can the G-Men use a series at home against the Padres to right the ship?  We will see.

BTW: it was kind of interesting to see the Dodgers and the Padres mix it up last weekend and both lost players, which has hurt the Dodgers more than the Padres. Carlos Quentin was suspended for something like 6 games but the Dodgers Greinke is out for who knows how long with a shoulder injury from trying to match tackles with a hitter (who he plunked) that outweighed him by about 50 pounds (not smart).  Also, the Padres are riding a three game win streak including a victory against Clayton Kershaw and a sweep of the Dodgers.

The D’backs, on the other hand, are busy beating up the AL East at the moment (playing the Yankees, and winning).  Led by our old friend Cody Ross and Paul Goldschmidt, the Snakes have SIX regulars batting over .300 and a pitching staff ERA somewhere around 3.  There is a reason they are in second place with an 8 and 6 record. Arizona is for real and we will see them starting on Monday night.

Every game this year should be like a playoff game and the G-men have now sold ALL available season tickets so getting into the park will be a challenge.  On that note there is extra security this weekend at AT&T so if you get to the tickets, get to the game early.

Ciao, and GO GIANTS!

The Czar