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Evaluating the Team at the end of August – We are not in a Good Place
From the beginning of the season, we all knew that the Giants had to work to match up better with LA, San Diego, and the Snakes. The NL West was always going to be a challenge. However, the attempts to get younger and more athletic (while promising with youngsters like Patrick Bailey and Fitzgerald) haven’t been enough. Who can be blamed – the most obvious candidate is Farhan, but ownership has its issues also (passing on big-time contracts to stud players). Today we are in 4th place in the NL West, one game under .500 and 13 games back. That is not a good place. In the last 2 weeks, we dropped series to the Mariners, Braves, and Brewers.
What have the issues been? We were supposed to get young and athletic. Jung Hoo Lee (26 years old), signed for $113 million over six years to play center field, had season-ending shoulder surgery in June (but may be back in September). Matos, our 22-year-old wonderkid, went cold at the plate and made a handful of defensive mistakes, while shortstop prospect Luciano 22, hasn’t shown a great feel for the game; both have been bused between San Francisco and Sacramento – a lot.
It’s not all bad, the success stories of young Giants (including Casey Schmitt, Tyler Fitzgerald, and Patrick Bailey) have been unexpected, but essential to what offensive success the team has had this season. Ramos, 24, began the year nearly written off the outfield depth chart, but he hit his way into a full-time job and an unlikely All-Star appearance. Fitzgerald 26, hit home runs at a Bondsian clip for a few weeks while stealing bases and playing great shortstop. Grant McCray, 23, just came to take over in center field and give them additional speed in the lineup. He looks like a keeper.
It’s not that the Giants are bad. They are just average. Their 100 weighted runs created plus (wRC+) reflects it — that’s exactly the league average. Their .308 weighted on-base average ranks 16th among MLB’s 30 teams; their .708 OPS ranks 14th.
Most notably, they are batting just .229 with runners in scoring position this season — better than just four other teams in baseball. The Giants have tried to use their athleticism to mitigate those woeful results with RISP, bunting with the bases loaded, or trying to stretch singles into doubles — but it hasn’t worked consistently. It’s been painful to watch.
Ramos, Fitzgerald, and Chapman have been the Giants’ most consistent offensive players. Chapman leads the team with 21 home runs and 31 doubles. But the core of the lineup is still under construction, and that’s reflected in the numbers, and that shouldn’t be the conversation we are having in September.
The strength of the team was supposed to be the pitching, and Blake Snell and Robbie Ray have shown glimmers of what they can do – unfortunately, though the guys behind them (including Birdsong, who melted down yesterday) are not carrying their weight and are not getting into the late innings. Doval losing his touch (and being demoted) didn’t help (although Ryan Walker has done a great job stepping up as a closer) but, overall, the pitching has been depressingly average.
The Giants’ close competitors in the race for postseason slots in the National League are for the most part working from stronger foundations offensively, and these are teams we will see in September as we attempt to stay in the race for a wild card slot.
Take the Padres, who are coming up late next week. The Padres are in the second National League wild-card spot because they put the ball in play. They lead MLB with a .274 expected batting average.
And let’s talk about the Snakes. While Corbin Carroll, last season’s Rookie of the Year, has fallen into a sophomore slump, he is still wreaking havoc on the basepaths with his speed. The 24-year-old’s on-base average dropped from .362 last season to .310, but Statcast determines he’s created an MLB-leading seven runs on the bases with 21 steals. The Snakes second-half surge in the standings owes much to longtime star Ketel Marte, an MVP candidate with a 5.4 WAR season. We will see these guys next week.
Outside of the division, the Mets and Braves are steaking, and we are not. The closest team to us right now is the Cubs (really?). You also might note I’m not mentioning that team from LA who might as well be in a different universe.
The bottom line is that, despite Chapman’s heroic moments and the glimmers of hope that Ramos and Fitzgerald have provided, it will take a push of heroic proportions in September for the G-Men to have a shot at the playoffs – at which point the questions to ownership about spending money for superior players will be front and center.
The Series to Come – The Marlins and the Snakes
This will be a tale of two cities. The Marlins are 30 games back in the NL East and have faded into irrelevancy – they are testing players and will do so during this series. We should be able to take those games. The Snakes are in second place in the NL West and are looking to bury the Giants once and for all. That series may tell the final tale of September.
On the Board ready for pick up are:
TUES 9/3 – [6:45] Snakes – (4)
WED 9/4 – [6:45] Snakes – (3) – I’m going
THUR 9/5 – [12:45] Snakes – (4)
Let the torture continue.
Ciao, and GO GIANTS!
The Czar
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THE PROTOCOL: The firm has four seats in Section 118 (Premium Lower Boxes), Rows 25 and 26. These are awesome seats directly below the press box and 25 rows behind the home plate on the left side behind the screen. It is foul ball territory for left-handed batters so bring your glove – I have collected 22 foul balls myself over 23 years and am looking for more. If we don’t use all the tickets ourselves (or clients and friends of the firm don't claim them by calling me and reserving a game), then my next step is to give the tickets TO THE FIRST PERSON WHO GETS BACK TO ME PROVIDED THAT THEY ARE SERIOUS. If you ask for the tickets and don't use them, you will be taken off the list unless there is a seriously good reason. There will be a waitlist.
When there are four seats available (we split up a lot of games) we will allocate the tickets two and two if the first people back just want two tickets. You can also go for four and might get them. I'm the Czar, my call.
Oh, and BTW, The Czar found the original Hinman & Carmichael brick from 2000 (after looking for it every year since 2000) and found H&C’s Gotham Club Founders Bat! If you are on the patio, or in the Club, look for the symbols of baseball!
