Giants v. Diamondbacks, Giants v. Reds

The G-Men are now 43 and 51 and 6.5 games back in the NL West Greetings to all of our friends who love the two-time World Champion SF Giants! This is it, the second half of the season. The last two months (since about May 15^th when Pagan went down) have been the worst Giants baseball since the mid-1980’s. 2 and 18 in the last 20 games before taking three out of four from Padres on the road in San Diego (which included Timmy’s no-no), probably the worst BA in the majors, the most men LOB, the worst defense and the most inconsistent pitching. If you can’t score runs, play defense or pitch you are not going to win ball games.

Why was this happening?  Injuries are one factor. I talked about this in the last blog. Scutaro’s back and finger, Crawford’s finger, Pagan’s hamstring (maybe Pagan will be back in September?), Panda’s weight, Casilla’s oblique, Aria’s hamstring and Sanchez’s whatever.

Well, in the second half we expect Casilla back (on Sunday), the Panda has been looking a bit slimmer (maybe it was an optical illusion but he played some really good D in San Diego), Crawford looks back to normal and has started hitting, Scutaro is steady and we expect Vogelsong back at the end of July.

Another factor (besides healing up) is that the Giants play most of their second half games at home, where they are still 5 games over .500.

In my view the next ten games will tell us whether or not the G-Men are buyers or sellers at the July 31^st trade deadline.  Sabean has already said that he isn’t trading Timmy (who has the most value of the Giants) and Cain and Bumgarner are untouchable.  Lopez on the other hand is vulnerable if the price is right (Atlanta is desperate for the left-handed reliever – who is in their farm system?).  The Panda also has value but only for a good starting pitcher to replace Zito (of course if Vogelsong comes back strong Gaudin could back to long relief).

If the Giants lose the three upcoming series (the Snakes, Reds and Cubs), or even two out of three, I suspect that Sabean will go into rebuilding mode.  However if the G-Men play over .500 (maybe 7 out of 10?) then they might be buyers. Sabean has made moves at the trade deadline before. In 2011 he got Keppinger and Beltran and last year he got Pence so expect something to happen.

So, these games are incredibly important and I expect each one to be a sell-out.

The Positives

The Giants have made some good moves. They brought up Tanaka, who is a really smooth player and who might be a factor because he is so versatile.  He looks and plays like Ichiro and was a Japanese All-Star (he’s 32 and hungry and he gave up a big contract in Japan to try to make it in the show – you have to love the attitude and confidence) . He is certainly a better player than Shinjo (remember him, of the neon orange armbands?). They also picked up Jeff Francoeur who, while well-traveled (Atlanta, the Mets and then the Royals) is a really solid defensive player who has hit for power in the past. He sucked with the Royals but maybe the change in scenery will do him good.  I’ve always liked him and he allows Boche to platoon Torre and Blanco in center, which plays to their strengths.

All in all this makes for a solid team.

On the pitching side, Bumgarner is money and Timmy seems to be finding his groove. Gaudin has been solid (the Las Vegas arrest notwithstanding) and with Casilla back in the 8^th inning maybe Affleldt will relax.  The G-Men bullpen is actually pretty good but has been overworked.

When they are clicking the infield of Crawford, Scutaro and Belt is solid. Tanaka is listed now as the utility infielder, which is pretty cool because he looked good in left field also. Belt has been hitting with power and may finally be coming into his own and Pence (as wildly streaky as he has been) is capable of carrying a team if he gets hot.

Finally, Buster Posey.  He is one hell of a player and worth coming to watch all by himself.  He’s Bonds without the attitude.

The Negatives

Matt Cain looks lost.. Maybe he can find his groove in the second half but he lasted on one inning in his last start at home. Barry Zito cannot win outside of AT&T.  Thankfully most of the second half games are at home but, regardless, this is his last year as a Giant.

The biggest negative is bad attitude. If the Giants believe that they can win they will. It starts with Boche. Keep your fingers crossed.

What Can the Giants do?  Is there any hope?

Yes, there is hope.  This team won 2 out of the last 3 world series.  That alone earned them the right to be watched no matter what else happens.  I’ll take finishing out of the playoffs every other year for a world series in the other years. The Giants of 51 came from 13 games down on August 15^th of that year to tie the Dodgers, win a sudden death playoff and go to the world series.  The 62 Giants did the same thing.  Last year this same team won two sudden death playoff series when they were down to their last game, and then swept the world series. Until the G-Men are mathematically eliminated, they are in it.

Also, I have to point that the Dodgers are getting back into their insufferable mode; arrogant, testy, full of themselves and, what’s the word for it?  Oh yes, assholes (especially that hot dog Puig, there isn’t enough mustard in California for that guy). At the very least if we keep the best team that money can buy out of the playoff’s the season will have been worth it. Rooting for the Dodgers is like rooting for Voldemort.

The Series to come

The Snakes are In first place in the NL West. If the Gigantes sweep, they will be 3 ½ out. If they take 2 out of 3, they will be 4 ½ out. Arizona is steady.  They are 5 games over .500 and won 6 out of their last ten games.  They are 23 and 25 on the road so they are vulnerable. Who comes out of the gate hungrier will decide this series.

The Reds are 11 games OVER .500 but still in 3^rd place (5 back) in the incredibly hot NL Central. They are full of All-Star hitters (Joey Votto and Jay Bruce among them) and pitchers like Homer Bailey (who no-hit the G-Men earlier this month).  The Reds are the real test and Dusty Baker likes nothing better than doing it to the G-Men at home.

The Cubs are in 4^th place in the NL Central (15 games back) and are going to be sellers for sure, so they will be showing off their trade bait, Matt Garza for sure and probably Soriano, Rameriz and, yes, Schierholtz. That will be an entertaining series, more important for the Giants than the Cubs I expect.

That's it. The clock is on.

Ciao, and GO GIANTS!

Giants v. Mets

The G-Men are now 39 and 45 and 4 ½ games back in the NL West  This is one of the saddest blogs that I’ve written in a long time.  I’m currently watching the first game of the Dodger’s series at home following the season’s second road trip from hell, this one even worse than the earlier one.  The G-Men were 1 win and 9 losses in the last 10 games, are 15-30 on the road and over the last two months have been the worst team in the major leagues after being swept by the Dodgers in LA, losing 2 out of 3 to the Rockies in Denver and losing 3 out of 4 to the Reds in Cincinnati.  The only reason they didn’t lose 4 out of 4 was because the 4^th of July game was rained out (we count that as a victory of sorts). It’s hard to be upbeat when Matt Cain can’t even make it through the 3^rd inning and the Dodgers are celebrating an early 8 to 1 lead, which is the current situation.

The Positives

The only positives that I know of is that the Giants are only 4 ½ games out, Buster Posey continues to hit like the All-Star and the MVP he is and Bumgarner (the pride of North Carolina) is pretty much solid as a rock (although some run support would be helpful).

Everything else pretty much sucks.  Except for Posey, the core hitters (Scutero, Blanco, Sandoval, Crawford, Pence and Torres) are 6 for 127 over the last ten games.  That is pathetic. Blanco even struck out hacking at a pitch that bounced 2 feet in front of the plate. That’s how anxious and out of sorts the hitters are. I’d talk about tonight being the first time in 15 games that the Giants had a first inning run but that pales beside the utter failure to hit with men in scoring position.

The headlines asked if the G-Men had hit rock bottom after being no-hit by Bailey in Cincinnati: no, it’s getting worse and watching the Dodger’s high-five each other is worse.

The pitchers can’t hit their spots, the hitters are the worst they have been probably since 1985 (remember, when the Giants lost 100 games before Will Clark came up in 1986), the bullpen is worn out and the defense is making errors (physical and mental). I’d talk about power numbers but there aren’t any: home runs have been few and far between. It’s depressing.

The Negatives

First, see above.

We should mention injuries because the G-Men are about as beat up as a team can be.  Crawford’s hand, Scutero’s back, Arias’s hamstring, Pagan’s hamstring (which is so bad he’s probably out for the season), Vogelsong’s hand, Gaudin’s hand, Casilla’s oblique and Zito’s inability to pitch anywhere else than AT&T (that would be a mental injury). If there is any team that needs a serious break it’s the Gigantes.

Of all the injuries Pagan’s might be the one that most affected the team. He was the top of the order hitter and the sparkplug.  It seems like the air went out of the team when he went down (on his game-ending walk off inside the park home run – I was there; maybe the high point of this season).

What Can the Giants do?  Is there any hope?

We are only half-way through the season and 4 and ½ games out.  In 1951 the Giants came from 13 ½  games down on August 15^th to tie the Dodgers and get into the World Series.  In 1962 the Giants of Mays, McCovey, Marichal and Perry were 4 games down with 6 to play and pulled even on the last day of the season and won a three game playoff with the Dodgers.  So, is it over?  No, as Pence pointed out in Animal House, was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?  NO.  Think about the playoff’s last year. On cold nights always remember the Buster Posey Grand Slam against Mat Latos.

Of course you all understand that I’m reviewing history because we have to believe, and we do. We came through Candlestick, the Earthquake series, the 100 loss season, the crushing loss to the Monkey-rally Angels in 2002 and having the Dodger’s knock us out of the playoff’s in 2004 on Steve Finlay’s 9^th inning walk-off grand slam following a Cody Ransom error that would have been the third out and a playoff qualifying victory (I was there for that also – in LA).  It’s not time to wear paper bags over our head yet.

My suggestion is that we trade for Alex Rios (we need another outfielder, one that can hit with power) and a starting pitcher; maybe Nolasco or even Jake Peavy, all with large contracts and available for next year (might as well think about that).  Then we send Lincecum to the bullpen where I think that he will thrive (think John Smoltz), Panda to the bench until he loses some weight and stop thinking about the post-season (we may not be there but we can certainly play better ball then we are right  now).

The guys to watch are Buster Posey, who will have a monster second half and may carry the team by himself and Brandon Belt who is very close to being the big bopper that the G-Men thought he could be. Look for Gaudin to be a solid fourth or fifth starter, look for Cain to get his head on straight after the All-Star break and look for Vogelsong to stabilize the pitchers when he comes back.

The Series to come

The Dodgers are glorying in their rookie, Puig, who has singlehandedly turned their season around in a month (I personally find it offensive that the LA papers think that Puig should go to the All-Star game after a month in the majors - but that is very LA). Tomorrow Bumgarner pitches and Sunday it will be Gaudin against Kershaw.  It would be very nice to take the next two games, although the current 10 to 2 shellacking that the Dodgers are putting on the Giants is no fun. Other than that I really do not want to talk about the Dodgers.  They are the best team that money can buy and as full of themselves as the Yankees of old.  Remember that we are only half way through the season.

The question is whether or not we can get healthy on the Mets before the desperately needed All-Star break. The Mets are in 4^th place in the NL East, 12 games out and seemingly counting the days until the break, although they just got Ike Davis back and are currently wiping up the floor with the Brewers (12 to 5).  We will be seeing David Wright, a lock for the All-Star game with a .305 BA and a great attitude and, if the Mets rotation holds, we will see Zach Wheeler (who we lost in the Beltran trade) pitching on Wednesday. It will be a “what could have been” moment.

Ciao, and GO GIANTS!

Giants v. Padres, Giants v. Marlins

Greetings to all of our friends who love the two-time World Champion SF Giants! The G-Men are now 35 and 31, 1.5 games back in 2^nd place

It’s a time of year during which we are still trying to figure out this team.  Yes the Giants are playing .530 ball (below the .570 they need to assure taking the division) but the entire NL West is struggling. Being a game and half back at this time of year is not a cause for serious concern or panic.  We won’t have a good handle on this division until the All-Star break at the earliest, and maybe not even then. One day it’s a struggle and the Giants are being shut out and the next day they are blowing out the best team in baseball.  All we can do is watch and hope that there are no more injuries.

The Pirates series was a microcosm of the season.  Two bad losses (one with 20 runs scored in the game by both teams) and then a 10-0 blow out before heading out to Atlanta.  If the Giants win today they will finish this particular road trip at .500 or above; that’s pretty sweet against the teams they have played (2 out of 3 from the Snakes, 1 of 3 from the Pirates and so far 1 and 0 from the Braves).

The Positives

The offense is the best that we’ve seen from the Giants since the early 2001 and 2002 teams of Jeff Kent and Barry Bonds.  They are toggling between the best and second best batting average and the most runs scored in the NL.  That hasn’t even been affected by the rash of injuries (see below), which is awesome.  The defense is tightening up (we may have the 4 best defensive fielders in baseball, between Torres, Blanco, Pence and now Perez – they cover a lot of ground) and Brandon Crawford is beginning to look like a lock as an All-Star shortstop (besides hitting at a current .294 clip with power). Buster Posey is once again looking like the league MVP, batting .313 with 8 dingers (and yesterday’s three doubles) and looking like Carleton Fisk behind the plate. Hunter Pence has played in every game, is batting .299 and has 11 home runs. These guys are for real.

On the pitching side Cain and Bumgarner have righted the ship and have had back to back shut out games (against the Pirates and the Braves) and we haven’t seen much of Romo because the G-Men have either been so far ahead, or so far behind, that he hasn’t been needed. Gaudin is pitching today against the Braves, and so far he is solid as he has been in his first two starts since taking over for Vogelsong after he went on the DL with a broken hand. There has been a lot of movement up and down from Fresno and it’s been effective; Perez for Pagan, Abreu for Scutaro and a succession of catchers. On the good news side Casilla is looking he might be back next week. He’s needed with Kontos being ineffective and being sent down to Fresno. On top of that when Kontos does come up he has to serve a 3 game suspension for plunking Andrew McCutcheon in the Pirates series.

Can something be both a positive and a negative?  Case in point is Barry Zito, with a 1.78 ERA at home and a 10.94 ERA on the road.  It’s too bad that it can’t be arranged so that Zito only pitches at AT&T.

The Negatives

The injuries that are piling up. Scutaro and Vogelsong out with hand injuries, Pagan with a hamstring that won’t heal and the Panda (overweight by 70 pounds) with a bad foot. Pablo is due back for the Padres series and Scutaro might also be back. Pagan remains a question mark.

We are all wondering if Scutaro will pull a Ronnie Lott and just cut off his little finger that has a bad tendon (it’s called mallet finger – Lott had the same thing before the 1985 playoffs and just cut off his finger so he could continue to play).

The Giants are rumored to be in the market for a starting pitcher because they need Gaudin in the bullpen, and Lincecum continues to be ineffective (and might be demoted to the bullpen himself). Leading the pack of speculation is Bud Norris from the Astros, Ricky Nolasco from the Marlins and Mark Buehrle from the Blue Jays. The G-Men don’t want a rental and each of those three guys are under control of their club for at least the next two years.

The Series to come

The Padres are in 4^th place and with the injuries to the Rockies (Tulowitski being on the DL with a broken rib being the worst – he’s out for six weeks at least) they are expected to move up and challenge the Giants.  The Padres are 33 and 34, 2 and half games behind the G-Men so this series could very much result in a major NL West shift. The Friars have historically owned the Giants. This will be an important set of games.

The Marlins, on the other hand, are in last place in the NL East 18 and half games out.  If Nolasco is pitching watch to see how well he does at AT&T.  This will be a tryout. Can the G-Men take the Marlins?  Don’t be too sure.  The Giants have a bad history against last place teams (look at what happened against the Blue Jays in Toronto – they got pounded and then got pounded again at home).

Giants v. Nationals, Giants v. Rockies, Giants v. A's

The G-Men are now 24 and 20, tied for second place and struggling Actually, the G-Men are more than struggling, they are now playing at a percentage (.545) that won’t get them into the playoffs and they are looking lost in the process.  They need to win at a .567 clip to finish with 92 victories. Right now just winning a game (after a 1 and 5 road trip in which the starting pitching averaged a 9.82 ERA in losing 5 games) would be a very good thing.

The last home stand was very good. Our boys swept the Dodgers, lost 2 out of 3 to the Phillies and won 3 out of 4 from the Braves (a likely playoff team) for a 7 and 3 home stand.  In the one game that the Giants lost to the Braves (a 6 to 3 loss that wasn’t that close), however, the G-Men looked like boys playing against men, which was a harbinger of the disaster that this last road trip (the road trip from hell) turned into. One day they look pathetic, the next they look like the two time world champions that they are.

The Positives

The hitting is out of this world.  Scutaro is hitting .331 and is on a 17 game hitting streak. The Panda is right behind him at .302, with Posey (.294), Pence (.290) and Crawford (.288) all in the mix of hot bats (until today’s game when the G-Men were shut out for only the second time this year). The power is there also; Pence and Panda have 7 dingers each, Posey has 6 and Crawford has 5. Moreover the Gigantes are either 1^st or 2^nd in the NL batting with runners in scoring position, a sign that team hitting is clicking and Hensley Muelans is doing his job.

So, the question is: how do so many hot bats translate into a 1 and 5 road trip and falling into a tie for 2^nd place with the Rockies?

The Negatives

First, the starting pitchers are REALLY getting hammered, as a combined ERA of 9.82 on the road trip from hell shows. All the starting pitchers (including Bumgarner, who has now caught the “give up a big inning” disease also) keep giving up big innings. We now measure success by lasting 6 innings to keep the bullpen relatively fresh.  This cannot last people.  The bullpen is good (and Bochy just added a 13^th pitcher, not a good sign and it cost him Brent Pill off the bench, who was playing very well. There have been team meetings, soul searching and general angst.  Vogelsong is probably in the worst shape and he starts the game tomorrow night.  If he doesn’t last more than the 2 innings he made it through in his last start I think that the brain trust should think of sending him down to Fresno to get his head screwed on straight.

Second, the errors MUST stop.  The Giants have made 13 errors in the last six games, to 4 by the opposition. This from a team that prides itself on defense. The last time that there was a stretch of games that bad (in 84 I believe) the G-Men lost 92 games. Most of the errors (which shake up the pitchers, get them in the stretch early and help create the stressful big innings) are stupid errors (at least from major leaguers), like failing to hit the cut-off man (Pagan), not backing up a throw (Bumgarner), throwing off balance when you have no chance and throwing the ball away (Lincecum, Crawford and Panda).  These are brain farts. Unfortunately errors are like good hitting, they are contagious. Like Yogi Berra famously said: “we made too many wrong mistakes.”

The Series to come

The Nationals are in town for the next three days.  They are 2^nd in the NL east (23 and 21) behind the Braves.  This will be a test and we will hopefully see Bryce Harper (the rookie phenom, leading the Nat’s with a .297 BA and 11 dingers) play.  Last week he ran himself full speed into a fence (he is, after all only 20 years old and that play calls something about him into question) and is day to day.  This is a tough good team that is expected to make a run at the playoffs.

We know all about the Rockies (tied with the G-men one game back of the Snakes), and they are in over the weekend with a fully healthy Tulowitski and Carlos Gonzalez. After dropping 3 out of 4 to the Rockies on this last road trip hopefully the orange and black will be determined and will come back.

Finally, next week we have the interleague series against the A’s.  Always entertaining the A’s are a really good team (I love the “green collar” theme this year) and are in 2^nd place in the AL West behind Texas. This is your chance to see Donaldson (.317), Lowrie at short, Moss at 1^st, Crisp in CF and the team that has always played the Giants very hard.

Ciao, and GO GIANTS!

The Czar

Giants v. Phillies; Giants v. Braves

Greetings to all of our friends who love the two-time World Champion SF Giants! The G-Men are now 16 and 12 and having a weird year so far

Let’s start this blog off on a philosophical note.  There are a 162 games in a season and you can’t win every one.  If the G-Men finish with 92 wins they are an almost certain lock to win the NL West (they are now in 2nd place behind the torrid Rockies) or to get into the playoffs. 92 wins translates to a .567 season long wins versus losses ratio.  The Gigantes are currently winning at a .571 clip.  They are where they need to be so undue worry isn’t justified.

April has been weird. For example, the G-Men have already been involved in 5 series where there were sweeps.  The Giants won three of them (Rockies, Padres and Diamondbacks) and lost two (Brewers and Padres).  In addition, it seems like a majority of the games that they have won have been come from behind victories after the starters got pounded. Lots of late inning heroics (like Belt’s three run homer in the 8^th inning against the Snakes on Wednesday night in AZ).

So, let’s see what May will bring us, besides flowers and margaritas.

The Positives

Come from behind victories are a sign of character in a ball club; that means they never give up and they have confidence in themselves.  The G-Men have character to spare.  The fact Zito is still leading the team in batting average shows that.

In terms of players, Brandon Crawford (who has started every game but has cooled off at the plate) is making people forget all previous Giants shortstops (except maybe Omar and Richie). He is awesome, seldom makes errors and has shown enormous extra base power (tied with Pence with 5 homers, wow!).  Nick Noonan is a total gamer.  Who would have known?  He is batting something like .310 and will soon be pushing Scutaro for a starting job. He has already pushed Arias out of his usual late inning role.

Belt went into a slump but came out of it in a big way with game winning homers and hits.  It seems that the flu that caused him to lose 20 pounds in April and lose his stroke may have run its course.

Buster is picking up the pace after a totally flat April (he’s up to .267) and the Panda (4) and Pence (5) are blasting homers and generally looking like we expected them to look (fearsome at the plate with power to spare; the 470 foot Pence home run in Arizona was pretty awesome).

The Negatives

The starting pitchers are getting hammered.  They all (except Bumgarner, who is now the stopper) keep giving up big innings.  If someone had told me in March that Cain would have a 6.8 ERA and no wins in April I would have said they were crazy. Vogelsong is not far behind Cain, and Timmy is also over 4.  Zito (who is pitching tonight against Kershaw) has had a couple of meltdowns but is generally pitching well with 3 wins so far.

One of the really strange things is that the hitters the starters are not getting out seem to be the opposing teams 8^th and 9^th place batters. Opposing team pitchers are feasting on Giants pitching (first career home runs and the like).  That is a sign of a loss of concentration.

The bullpen (especially Romo, who has 11 saves already) is steady with Kontos and Gaudin being the best long guys.  The question now is what will happen when Affeldt gets off the DL (hopefully soon). Machi has been a revelation (he was brought up when Affeldt went down) and it will be hard to send him down again.  The problem is that he is a right hander.  The G-Men also seem to have a plethora of good young pitchers in the minors so if someone isn’t cutting it (do you hear footsteps Javier Lopez?) there are alternatives in Fresno.

On the defensive side of things there have been some brain fart type of errors (especially in the outfield) that have cost games.  Blanco and Pagan (both batting well above .280) both allowed the same guy to advance to 2^nd in two different games and in both he scored what turned out to be the winning run. Hopefully the coaches are working on this.

The Series to come

The Dodgers are 2 and half games back of the G-Men but hitting better as a team (Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzales and Matt Kemp are total studs).  The Dodgers problems have been injuries, pitchers and head cases (mostly pitchers but I put Hanley Ramirez in the head case category).  Tonight Kershaw goes against Zito.  This weekend will be a good test of the G-Men sucking up April and starting to play more consistent ball.

The Phillies are in 3^rd place in the NL East and basically playing .500 ball right now. Their big hitters are Michael Young and Chase Utley.  They have Kevin Frandson (remember him?) at third base. They also have some struggling starters (Halliday with an ERA of almost 7?) so the series should be very interesting. The Giants have a real chance here to make up some ground in the standings if they can hit the Phillies starters hard.

The challenge is going to be the Braves.  The tomahawk team is seriously hot right now. They are 17 and 11 and leading the NL East.  They are the team to beat.  Their big boppers are Justin Upton (traded from the Snakes because he was a head case) and Brian Johnson, the best catcher in the game not named Buster Posey. Their pitching has been great (most of their starters are hovering in the 3 ERA range) and the pitchers can hit (Tim Hudson has the best BA on the team – he and Zito were once teammates – maybe it was in the water in Oakland). If the Giants can take this four game series (or even split) they will have established themselves as the team to beat.

Ciao, and GO GIANTS!

The Czar