October Special #2 - The NLCS

Welcome to the 16th Czar’s blog of 2014 celebrating our San Francisco Giants!  This is the special postseason blog, hopefully the second of three (one for the NLDS, one for the NLCS and one for the WS). 

Are we having fun yet?

It was difficult to predict a month ago that the Giants would be in the final four but not only did they make the NLCS, they took the first game from the Cardinals last night 3-0 behind an awesome performance by Bumgarner for 7 and 2/3 innings. 

The end of the NLDS was pretty cool. We lost game #3 to the Nationals only because of an error by Bum throwing to 3rd rather than getting an out at first. That play was actually one of the only examples of the team not playing the Giants way we have seen in the post-season.  The Giant’s way is slow, methodical, inning by inning, base by base, grinding out every at-bat and not making mistakes.  That play was high-risk and it cost us the game.  The ship was righted in Game #4 when Vogelsong went 5 and 2/3, the bullpen took it the rest of the way and the G-Men won 3-2. 

However of note is the fact that (other than in the WC game) the G-Men scored only 2 and 3 runs in taking the NLDS, and last night in taking Game #1 of the NLCS they squeaked out 3 runs.

The Giants and the Cardinals (besides trading the NL championship back and forth since 2010) are almost identical teams.  Good pitching, good bullpens, solid players, good managers (in the Giants case great), really professional front office and great fans.  Both teams play fundamental baseball, station to station hitting, good defense and minimal errors. That’s why the games are going to be low scoring.

Game #1, however, was an example of why Giants fans should be confident going into the three games at AT&T. Bum is clearly at the top of his game, and Wainwright is clearly not.  An uncharacteristically sloppy Cardinals defense behind Wainwright directly contributed to 2 of the Giants 3 runs.  The Cardinals defense is not going to continue to play that way.

In terms of match-up the Cardinals are evenly split between right and left handed batters and the G-Men lean slightly left-handed (Crawford, Belt, Panik, Ishikawa) with two switch-hitters (Panda and Blanco) and two right-handers (Posey and Pence). Most of the Cardinals pitchers are right handers.  This favors the Giants. 

Generally speaking the Giants pitchers are better (ERA, bullpen holds, etc.) than the Cardinals staff but its close.  Frankly the fact that Wainwright is playing hurt (he is for sure) may be the deciding factor. Tonight is Lynn versus Peavy, Tuesday is Hudson and Wednesday is Vogelsong – in both cases with Petite and Lincecum right there if they falter. The Giants bullpen is also slightly better than the Cardinals and, as they say, good pitching beats good hitting.

In terms of positon players you have to give the edge to Posey over Molina (but both are great players). However the Cardinals have the edge at 3rd (Carpenter over the Panda), short (Peralta over Crawford), Left Field (Holliday over Ishikawa) and Center Field (Jay over Blanco). I give us the edge at 1st (Belt over Adams), 2nd (Panik over Wong) and Right field (Pence over anyone).

It’s a pretty even match-up on the whole and should be great baseball.

The real match-up though might be Bochy over Matheney, and that’s in the Giants favor.

But this is perhaps the Giants biggest asset!

The ALCS

Right now the Royals are up 2-0 on the Orioles, and going back to Kansas City to (I believe) wrap up the  ALCS. The Royals play fast, they play small ball and they keep coming back with big innings after being down. They have now taken 6 straight playoff games (the A’s in the Wild card, the Angels in the NLDS and 2 games in Baltimore.  My prediction (joined by most of baseball I suspect) is that either the G-Men or the Cardinals will be seeing the Royals week after next.  However I also predict that the WS will be a different experience for the Royals because the pitching they face in the NL will be a lot better than the pitching they faced in the AL -  pitching is the big difference between the AL and NL right now.  Besides, wouldn’t it be sweet to see Morse as the DL?

It’s League Championship playoff time!

Ciao, and GO GIANTS!

The Czar

PS, We would have liked to see the Dodgers in the NLCS, but it was not to be

NLDS Playoffs Giants v. Nationals

Welcome to the 15h Czar’s blog of 2014 celebrating our San Francisco Giants!  This is the special postseason blog, hopefully the first of three (one for the NLDS, one for the NLCS and one for the WS). 

If you are a NL team not worried about the G-men, you are not paying attention

The play-off’s this year are riveting.  It all started with the Wild Card games.  First Kansas City takes out the A’s in a 12 inning thriller where the lead changed hands about four times. Then the Giants pound the Pirates 8-0 behind Bum, a Brandon Crawford Grand Slam (first one by a shortstop in MLB history) and a three hit night by Panik. This looked like the Giants team from April and May.

It all started with the “yes, yes, yes” yell (supported by 40,000 fans, of which I was one) by Pence following the season ending victory over the Padres last Sunday.  He asked if we wanted another game at home – YES – YES – YES!

After the Pirates game the G-men came into DC to play the team with the best record in the regular season  – the Nationals. Peavy faced off against Steven Strassberg and behind Panik’s triple, Posey’s game winning RBI and Strickland’s 100 mph heater to get a strikeout with the bases loaded, they beat the National’s 3-2 and took home field advantage. Today it’s Hudson versus Zimmerman.

The Gigantes are simply looking like they are the coolest team in the playoff’s – nerves of steel, going about their business playing one inning at a time and making the plays they need to make. They are now 9 and 0 in postseason play going back to 2012. That might not continue but it’s a pretty cool record.

Who is hot and who is not

The Giants are not the most talented team in the playoff’s but they are clearly the most experienced and they have one intangible that no one else has – Bruce Bochy. He is a master at managing his players  - he puts the right guy in the right place at the right time. It’s positively surreal.

On the player side of things we clearly miss Pagan (not so sure about Morse) but the way that Panik has stepped up is helping to take the edge off of that loss. MadBum and Peavy are nails, and Hudson is doing well tonight. The next game belongs to MadBum on Monday versus Gio Gonzalez.

The question mark seems to be Ishikawa in left field but then again he got a huge hit in game 1 yesterday and he got the only hit early in the game against Zimmerman today. The secret weapon might just be Brandon Belt. The two hits in the Wild Card game were pretty nifty.

My take is that the Giants are a true TEAM – not a collection of superstars. Each player is a piece of the puzzle in a box organized by Sabean that Bochy puts together before each start. It’s like watching a well-oiled machine. It is just awesome baseball. Does this team compare to 2010 and 2012?– yes and no,  Yes with respect to grit, determination, Buster Posey and a shutdown bullpen, no with respect to depth on the bench, or Cody Ross or Edgar Renteria. Will any of this make a difference?  The next two games will tell or, if the G-Men win today, it’s all about Monday.

We will talk about the NLCS when we get there.

The Play-offs

National League: The only thing that has been almost as much fun as watching the Giants win has watching the Dodgers melt down.  Kershaw giving up a six run inning tells me that the LA Thugs may not get to the NLCS,  However the Cardinals are very tough (especially at home) and they are suddenly hitting home runs. If the Cards do beat the Thugs they will be very tough at home. 

American League: Does anyone not like the Royals?  What a bunch of fun kids; they play fast and they play small ball.  7 stolen bases against the A’s and it seems like they have gotten as many against the Angels.  The Royals are up 2-0 in the series (on the road) and now go home to try to finish off the Angels – who look old and tired, even with Trout and Pujols.  The other series, the O’s versus the Tigers looks like it’s over. Baltimore is making the Tigers look old and slow. 

It’s playoff time!

Ciao, and GO GIANTS!

The Czar

The Rockies and Brewers

The bottom line – now is NOT the time to Panik

The G-Men are 4.5 games back of the Dodger’s and in the lead for the second wild card in the play-off’s. The Giants brain trust is confident but perhaps a bit premature in the requirement to buy playoff tickets by week after next or forfeit them. On the most recent road trip the boys were 3 and 3, won two of three from the Cubs and lost two of three to the Nationals (the best team in the NL, 20 games over .500). As noted last week, this looks like a .500 team.

The good news is that Joe Panik is really starting to look like the 2nd baseman of the future.  Sweet swing, .307 BA (with a  3 run dinger against the Nationals) and solid defense. He looks like a great compliment to Crawford (who has been pressing and is still hovering around.230).  The top of the order is hitting much better and it looks like Buster and Morse are both coming alive – Buster because his hips were treated and Morse because he has decided not to be pull-happy. The Panda is solid in this, his contract year, with the best defense of his career, a .288 BA, 14 HR’s and 59 RBI’s.

Perhaps the biggest surprise is Travis Ishikawa, picked off waivers for bench support.  We have always liked Ishi and he is batting over .300 and hitting homers in his new role.  He can even play left field to spell Morse.

The bad news is that Belt is not getting better from his concussion (although he swears he will be back this season) I didn’t realize that he also had a serious concussion in college and that is very worrisome. On that front, it looks like Sanchez is out for the season (Susac has been capable), Scutaro is not coming back – ever I suspect, Cain is out until the spring and Lincecum is in the middle of his annual late season (lost release point and bad mechanics) melt-down.  He will probably miss his next start and go to the bullpen.

It’s time for September baseball!

On September 1st rosters expand and I don’t who we will see up from the minors (because I don’t know who is left down after all the recent call-up’s). However The Giants MUST win their division games to have a shot at the wild card. Atlanta is breathing down their neck and the Cardinals are fighting the Brewers not only for their division but for the first wild card.

Every game is now a must win game for every team, which is why it was so much fun to see the video of Puig’s bone head run into a triple play today. Puig Is truly the face of the Dodgers.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/24678266/video-mets-turn-triple-play-thanks-to-yasiel-puigs-baserunning-gaffe

Ciao, and GO GIANTS!

The Czar