The Run to the Playoffs, Starting with the A's

Welcome to the 2nd Czar’s blog of 2017 celebrating the end of Spring Training and the true beginning of 2017, when baseball comes back to the City by the Bay.

The G-Men return home to AT&T on Thursday (with a 40 man roster – who will be voted off the island? That is the question that may be answered below) and play Thursday and Friday this week before a game in Oakland on Saturday and then off to Arizona for the Snakes home opener next Sunday – the true beginning of the season.

What does the team look like coming out of Arizona?

Answer: Pretty healthy, except for Will Smith’s upcoming Tommy John (out for the year), Williamson’s leg (really?) and Morse’s hamstring.

Pitching staff: The pitching staff is coming together well and the competition there has been the real story of the spring – especially when we are talking about Matt Cain. He is in the last year of his big contract and will earn $18 million while pitching himself out of a job. He also may be this year’s answer to the annual Barry Zito trivia question about who has the worst contract on the team.

The Starters: Bumgarner is once again the stud of the rotation, although he is being pushed by Cueto for the cool factor (is there anyone more relaxed than Cueto on the mound?). While Moore’s ERA is in the 5’s and Samardzija and Cain are in the 8’s, Moore is looking game ready, Samardzija is throwing very hard and Cain is getting rocked by leaving balls over the plate.  He is not fooling batters..

The big story is the young guys, especially Ty Blach and Beede, both of whom are pitching like starters in waiting.  Blach and Cain are locked in a fight for the 5th starter (versus long reliever) spot and Blach is winning. The story will play itself out at AT&T on Thursday and Friday.  Expect both to pitch in the series.  Beede on the other hand is probably a lock for the River Cats even though he deserves to be up here. $18 million does that to a front office.

The Relievers: Guarrin, Law and Kontos will be in middle relief, perhaps joined by Strickland on occasion, Melancon (the big off-season acquisition) will be the closer.  The battle right now will be between Okert and Osich for the remaining spot.   With Lopez retired and Sergio having scuttled off to LA like a cockroach in the off-season (although you can’t blame him for wanting to play, and he did give us a lot of good years) the relievers will have a different look this year, hopefully better than we saw in Game 4 against the Cubs (shudder).

The Infield is acknowledged to be best in the NL 

Belt (who is hitting really well and with power) at 1st, Panik at 2nd, Nunez at 3rd, Crawford at short (did you see Craw in the WBC? my God that man put on a show – he is no longer going to be fooling anyone) and Buster Posey, the best catcher (and the best player) currently playing baseball, behind the dish.  It doesn’t get any better than this group.  The defensive metrics for this group when they are together are off the charts.  Buster and Brandon look (after the WBC) to be in mid-season form.

The remaining spots include Gillespie (pretty a lock as back up third base), with Aaron Hill versus Kelby Tomlinson and Jimmy Rollins for the remaining spots.  The money is on Gillespie and Hill (who have both played well) making the team, and that Tomlinson (who has options left) goes down along with the surprising Korean utility fielder Hwang. Who wants to take money on Jimmy Rollins retiring?  Who wants to take a bet on Hwang making the team if the Giants take one less pitcher?

Outfield: The bottom line is that the outfield is healthy and ready for the season. Hunter Pence is Hunter Pence. Denard Span is showing what he can do when he’s healthy but the real contest has been between Parker (who probably has the job locked after hitting the cover off the ball this spring), Williamson (with both a bad leg and options – can you say River Cats?) and a new face, Chris Marrero.  Remember that name. The guy can hit. Gorkys Hernandez is the fourth outfielder (in the traditional Blanco spot).

Again, no real surprises after spring training, which is a testament to the consistency of the Giants front office and coaching staff.  Bruce Bochy is the best manager in the game today, no question.

One question? Will old age affect the G-Men? Posey is 30, Pence is 33, Melancon is 32, Cueto is 31 and Crawford is 30.That’s long in the tooth for baseball and it’s a really long season.  Look for the young guys (like Austin Slater) warming up if the season doesn’t go well. 

The Coaching Staff: Usually this isn’t an issue with Rags and Bochy in the dugout but there are two new base coaches this year.  Billy Hayes is gone at first and replaced by Jose Alguacil (who got beaned really bad in Scottsdale) and Phil Nevin is replacing Roberto Kelly (who stunk last year) at third.  Look for a better running game.  Nevin is a manager in waiting.

The NL West – what’s happening there?  

While this will be mostly a two-team race (Dodgers, and the Giants), the G-Men face an uphill battle all the way.  The Rockies are stockpiling pitchers but are still playing in Denver, the Padres are rebuilding and Arizona is a mess.

That said, here is what the Dodgers (who are no doubt a strong and arrogant ream led by all-world Clayton Kershaw) are saying about the Giants.  This is one of their team report to the fans:

The Giants aren’t that good. You really shouldn’t be worried about them. Don’t get me wrong or misunderstand what I am saying here. The Giants will be competitive in 2017. They’ll be the Dodgers primary obstacle to the division title. But are they pennant contenders? I’m going to say no.

The report goes on to diss the entire Giants team as weak and over-rated. I can’t wait to be at the first Giants-Dodgers game this year at AT&T (that will be April 24th) and see if we can’t shove these words down their throats. Where is Candlestick Park when we need it on a Friday night?

And thus it begins.

Now it is time to get the glove ready for AT&T and enjoy baseball – 2017 style!

Ciao, and GO GIANTS!

The Czar

Want to be in a Giants Commercial?

Welcome to the first 2017 Czar’s blog

I know that this is early for the first Czar’s blog post of the year. Pitchers and catchers don’t report for another 18 days, and most of us are still reeling from the last Cubs game in October with the 9th inning relief pitching disaster (the worst pitching moment in Giants history since 2002 in Anaheim when Dusty took the ball from Russ Ortiz) but there is a special offer from the Giants to occupy AT&T next Monday as part of a Giants commercial shoot. 

Here is the link with the details and the registration link.

The event is on Wednesday February 8th and if I could be there I would be but duty calls at the office.

Now for a taste of baseball.  This morning the Giants/Dodgers historic rivalry was voted the number one rivalry in baseball.  You think? The team that shall not be named has re-tooled for the season is picked to finish 10 games in front of the orange and black.  I suspect that we will all have something to say about that.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/214516288/ranking-mlbs-top-5-rivalries/

GO GIANTS!

Ciao,

The Czar

2016 Post-Season #1 - Backs Against the Wall

Welcome to the first 2016 Czar’s Postseason blog of 2016.

 

The Playoffs – How did the Giants make it?

The Giants played the last week of September like they played the first half of the season, with confidence, good pitching and timely hitting.  The Dodger’s series was exceptionally sweet. There is nothing like a sweep to finish off the year and secure the wild card. The Cardinals victory last Sunday meant that the G-Men couldn’t back into October but had to earn it – and earn it they did.

The Wild-Card – Bum at his Best

Bum against Thor on the road.  This was a game for the ages. Nail-biting on every pitch until Terry Collins blinked, pulled Thor, put in his closer and we then watched him give up a 3-run dinger to that most unlikely of post-season hero’s – Conor Gillaspie, who was on the roster and playing third because of an injury to Nunez.

Was anyone surprised?  No.  Conor just joined Cody Ross, Marco Scutaro and Travis Ishikawa in Giants post-season lore.  I want his bobblehead.

Onto the NLDS, where we are now.

Wrigley Field – Where teams have gone to die this year

The first two NLDS games against the Cubs at Wrigley field have been excruciating. First a 1-0 loss on a home run in the basket (could have and should have been caught by Pagan) after a masterpiece of pitching by Cueto against Lester (who was not untouchable – the G-Men ran themselves out of the game by being picked off and by not being able to score with RISP – sound familiar?).

In Game two last night, Samardjiza choked and gave up four runs, and the G-Men ultimately lost 5-2. An ugly game in that it appeared the G-Men reverted to their second half style with an inability to score with RISP, a lack of timely hitting and questionable relief pitching (a home run to a reliever?  Spare me).

The Cubs are rated better by the national press than the Giants at every position except catcher (dissing Buster Posey is never smart). While the Giants are considered dead on arrival against the 103 wins Cubs with Joe Maddon, Bill Murray and the baseball Gods all against them, the history of the post season even year Giants casts just enough doubt that there should be serious butterflies in the stomach of every long suffering Cubs fan.

Keep in mind that the Giants and the Cubs have played relatively even this year for the season.  It is not over.

Elimination Game time

Tomorrow night it is Madison Bumgarner against Jake Arrieta for all the marbles.  It’s an elimination game in front of 40,000 plus faithful at AT&T. We have the Cubs just where we want them – terrified of the even year magic that propelled us past Atlanta in 2010, the Reds in 2012 (three elimination games in the row) and the Nats in 2014.  It’s now one game at a time and regardless what happens we will be yelling our throats out and waving our rally rags for the G-Men.

If there is a Tuesday night, the question is whether it will be Matt Moore (who pitched brilliantly against the Dodgers) or Cueto on short rest.  I predict Moore with Cueto for game 5 but who knows – this is Bochy time and Giants time.  It doesn’t get any better.

May the force be with you always.

Ciao, and GO GIANTS!

The Czar

"To be or not to be" in the playoffs, that is the question

Welcome to the 13th (and maybe the last) Czar’s blog of 2016

With apologies to William Shakespeare:

To be, or not to be in the playoffs--that is the question:
Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of an outrageous lack of hitting in the second half of the season
Or to take up bats against a sea of Rockies and Dodgers pitchers
And by opposing hit them hard. To die, to sleep--
No more--and by a sleep to say we end
The heartache, and the thousand natural shocks that this strange season has visited upon the Giants faithful!

The Playoffs – Will The Giants make it?

That is indeed the question.  There are six games left in the season and the G-Men are one game back of the Mets for the top wild card spot and a half game ahead of the Cardinals (who have the tiebreaker on them) for the last spot.

The challenges include the obvious: scoring more runs and allowing fewer of them against the Colorado Rockies, starting tomorrow night. Then we have to take the three weekend games against the Dodgers, who have clinched the NL West title. LA would like nothing more than to bury the Giants. Hopefully the fact that the G-Men got buried by the Padres is a function of the fact that the Friars own the Giants, and pretty much always have.

The Giants own the NL's worst second-half record (25-41) and must focus on doing better than the Mets and Cardinals. We begin the final week of the regular season one game behind New York for the top spot and leading St. Louis by a half-game for the second spot.

This is the biggest week of the season. We can do it if the following can be accomplished.

Start hitting!

The Giants' pathetic hitting has obscured all other facets of their game. Last Saturday's nine-run, 12-hit game at San Diego ended a stretch in which they had scored 12 runs in seven games. Is anyone surprised that the G-Men entered Monday with 84 runs scored in September, the NL's second-lowest total?

Bring the bullpen back from the abyss and help out the starters!

The bullpen has stabilized somewhat since earlier this month when the relievers seemingly blew leads daily.  Romo has converted three consecutive save opportunities, and Strickland is looking good. The starters are performing adequately (although the potential loss of Cueto is really worrying). Regardless, the fact that the Giants have lost a franchise-record nine games this season in which they led entering the ninth inning (five of them this month) should send shudders through the faithful.

I don’t know where Casilla went but he should stay gone. I can’t recall the last Giants pitcher that got booed off the field.

Let’s focus on the Rockies and Dodgers.

The G-Men are 8-8 this season against each team. We can beat both of them, and must beat them. LA has outscored San Francisco by 59-58. That is NOT ownage. As for the Rockies, of the top nine hitters at AT&T this year, three are Rockies. Mark Reynolds (.409), DJ LeMahieu (.379) and Nolan Arenado (.333, two homers, seven RBIs).

Three Dodgers also have done much too well at AT&T – Adrian Gonzalez (.367), Chase Utley (.346) and Joc Pederson (.320, two homers). If we must hate, make it Utley. Personally, I’m sticking needles in Utley’s bobblehead.

The fans MUST support the team at home!

The Giants' 40-35 record at AT&T Park is not good. There are six consecutive home games left. If the G-Men score early and get the crowd in the game we will have our best chance of winning.  None of us should forget for a moment that the wild card was the route the G-Men took to the WS in 2014.

Play like the Giants

Buster Posey and Hunter Pence are capable of taking over a game, Brandon Crawford is a big-time shortstop, and Pagan, Span and Nunez (if healthy) are legitimate threats.

Behind them Joe Panik is a terrific  second baseman and Kilby Thompson is a clutch hitter if there ever was one. Don’t ever forget what Belt is capable of at AT&T.  He and Span have the only splash hits this year.

No more excuses.  Its time: either that or we join the Danish King on the Ramparts bemoaning what could have been!

May the force, and seven innings from the starters, be with you always. 

That’s it!

Ciao, and GO GIANTS!

The Czar

A Tale of Two Teams

Welcome to the 12th Czar’s blog of 2016.

Two teams – the Giants pre the All-Star break and the Giants in August and right up until the last five games, including the game today that culminated in a sweep of the Snakes.

The early season Giants.  Confident hitters, good defense, strong pitching and a capable bullpen.

The current Giants. Looking like a bottom of the standings team that can’t hit with men in scoring position making key defensive errors with a bullpen that can’t hold a lead.

Which team is for real? We will find out over the next 20 games.

Before I left for Bali and Komodo I asked to return to a first place team with a bullpen that can hold a lead.  Instead I return to the Dodgers in first place, Puig called back up again with the boys in blue and Casilla channeling Brian Wilson at his worst.

I am asking the dragon (see attached) for help, perhaps by eating a key Dodger player or two, with maybe Casilla as an appetizer.

The problem, in one word, is hitting.  The bats are cold and (until today with some great Hunter Pence swings) it seemed that every batter was pressing. Has someone stolen the offense (maybe awful, mean, fairies from LA?).

I am constantly reminding myself that the Giants are in the top four in MLB (above the Dodgers mind you) in fielding and pitching (although it sure doesn’t seem that way when you look at the relievers giving it up on a regular basis) and what we have seen are not the real Giants. So the hope right now is to believe that what they have done over the last five days are the real Giants and the team from the eight weeks before was some sleep-walking zombie apparition.

The Playoffs are here

The G-Men are in the playoffs right now and are one of the top five teams in the NL (along with the Cubs  - who are cruising into the playoffs - the Nationals, the Cardinals and LA).   The Gigantes must win the series against the Cardinals to hold their current lead for the first wild card and pound the Padres and the Rockies (aren’t division games to finish off a season fun?). If they do play the rest of the month like they have done since that blown save fiasco in Denver there is a good chance that they will at least hold the wild card and get into the playoffs in October.  Every inning and every game count right now. 

However it will most definitely all come down to the games left against the team that shall not be named from LA –  in LA first and finishing at home. We will have a much longer discussion of that key series in the last blog of the year before the final week of baseball. However keep in mind that the current three game deficient can be made up pretty quickly. The Giants destiny is in their hands.

What do we need to get there?

Matt Moore has been pitching very well, as his one hitter against the Cubs and his 11 strikeout day today shows.  If Bum and Cueto can continue their pitching, Moore and Samardzija are very able 3rd and 4th starters. We have the talent. Do we have the will?

But it all comes down to the big boys with the bats. Pence, Posey, Pagan, Panik, Crawford, Belt, Span and Nunez.  If they hit, we win. If they don’t we struggle.

The games below (the Cardinals and Padres) will go quickly so get back to me as soon as you can. The Czar leaves for Italy on Tuesday (duty calls, being a wine lawyer requires constant sacrifice) so the tickets for this upcoming home series need to be allocated by tomorrow afternoon.

May the force, and seven innings from the starters, be with you always.

That’s it!

Ciao, and GO GIANTS!

The Czar