Welcome to Czar’s blog #1 of 2020.
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By: Sean Kiley
Editors Note from the Czar. Sean (who is headed to law school soon) graciously volunteered to start off the 2020 Baseball season (it’s almost here!) with his take on the Astro’s sign stealing scandal. It’s not the Black Sox of 1919 (100 years ago!) but it’s a reflection of our time and will be part of the backdrop of the 2020 season almost upon us. Pitchers and catchers report in a few weeks and the season will be underway. We have our seats ready and welcome all baseball gossip! Meanwhile, adjust your cap and your cup, oil your glove and get ready for 2020!
Thank you for welcoming me to the Czar’s blog as a guest contributor and the ‘Czar’s Assistant.’ My name is Sean, I’ve been working for Hinman & Carmichael as a Legal Assistant since September of 2019. Before joining the firm, I played independent pro-baseball in the Pecos League for the Trinidad Triggers and the High Desert Yardbirds until I blew out my shoulder. Baseball was my initial point of contact with John (the Czar himself), and I’m glad to keep contributing to our mutual interest through this blog. You will hear more from me as the season progresses.
A hundred years after the Black Sox Scandal broke, the MLB has another scandal on its hands. Below I’ve summarized the Astros sign stealing scandal and my take on the punishments, fairness to the league, and fairness to the Astros. The real reason for this blog however, was the thought that kept swirling for me: how would the game evolve if this scandal was the new normal? What if technology could be used to steal signs? Would that be a bad thing, a normal thing, or even possibly a good thing?
The Scandal
The sign stealing scandal was first revealed by former Astros pitcher Mike Fiers (now a member of the Oakland A’s) and led to an investigation by the MLB into Houston’s use of technology to steal opposing pitcher signs during the 2017-2019 seasons. A cameraman in center field filmed and relayed opposing catcher’s signs to the dugout, who then banged on a trash can to let the hitters know what pitch is coming (no bang = fastball, one bang = curveball, etc). Alex Cora, the Bench Coach for the Astros in 2017 (and Red Sox Manager in 2018), apparently played a significant role in this operation.
There has been speculation, (but not concrete evidence) that the Astros used buzzers during the playoffs in 2019. The internet seems to think Jose Altuve didn’t want his jersey ripped off after his walk off homer against Aroldis Chapman because he had a “piece” strapped to his arm. I need more evidence than just Altuve’s reluctance to take off his shirt (this is not sufficient evidence itself), but many others seem convinced already.
On January 16th, Commissioner Rob Manfred announced a 1-year ban for Astros Manager AJ Hinch and GM Jeff Luhnow. The Astros also lost their first and second round draft picks for the upcoming two drafts (2020 and 2021), and had to pay a $5 million fine. Within an hour of the announcement, The Astros released both Hinch and Luhnow. Shortly after, the Red Sox parted ways manager Alex Cora for his involvement, and newly appointed Mets manager Carlos Beltran parted ways with his club as well. If something can be done wrong, the Mets sure seem to find a way to do it.
History of sign stealing
Baseball is a game of such frustration that it makes sense to look for the edge even when cheating is required to obtain it. There is no doubt stealing an opponent’s signs grants an enormous advantage to hitters. Sign stealing predates Major League Baseball itself (the earliest reports come from 1876). Among the most famous examples is from the 1951 New York Giants, who employed a spy in center field with a pair of binoculars, and a system of flashing lights. The system allowed the Giants to catch and tie the Brooklyn Dodgers, erasing a 13.5 game deficit in just over a month and maybe, just maybe, contributed to Bobby Thomson’s home run heard around the world. The Czar may not like this part, but it is what it is.
While the spy in center field appears often in the sign stealing narrative, by far the most common agent of sign stealing is the runner on second base (and then probably the first base coach). From second base, the runner has a direct view of the catcher’s signs and can communicate his own set of signals to the hitter, or dugout for further relay. For this reason, it’s common to see the catcher walk out to the mound with a runner on second base: the pitcher and catcher need to figure out a more elaborate system than “one finger means fastball.”
The consensus in baseball is that sign stealing from second base is part of the game. If your opponent is careless and hands you an advantage, you ought to take it. But of course, there is nothing fair about a team knowing the opponent’s signs because of their home field knowledge and the use of technology; especially where the opponent’s staff is dismissed from certain parts of the park for pointing their phone at the field.
Fairness to the League
MLB rules restrict the use of technology to steal opponent’s signs (but there is no provision against stealing opponents signs without technology). Because of this, it seems curious to condemn only one player (Beltran), two coaches (Hinch and Cora), and a GM (Luhnow). The Astros organization has been a powerhouse over the past three years, collecting a World Series in 2017, winning the Division Series in 2018, and reaching the World Series in 2019. For most fans, their World Series win and their players individual achievements will have asterisks next to them (Altuve’s MVP win in ‘17 for example). While not much for reconciliation (sorry Dodgers – not really), baseball has never revoked a title from a team, and I would not expect these events to change that.
While it is hard to compare directly, there is evidence to support the claim that pitchers have an easier time pitching to hitters on steroids than to Astros hitters at Minute Maid Park (Jose Altuve’s playoff Home/Away splits are a good indicator). Considering the punishments now in effect for PEDs (50 game suspension, then 100 game suspension, then lifetime ban), if performing hitters are enhanced more by technology influenced sign stealing, we should expect them to receive punishments greater than or equal to those issued for PEDs. Carlos Beltran should not be the only player punished in this scandal.
Fairness to the Astros
This is the side we have heard little about. Jeff Luhnow claimed he knew nothing about this scandal, yet he was one of only two current Astros issued a suspension. While AJ Hinch was in the dugout for every game and clearly knew what was going on, it is possible that Luhnow may not have known.
Besides losing their top two picks for the next two years, the money associated with those picks is also taken away from the Astros and redistributed across the rest of the teams in the league. This cuts the Astros signing bonus pool (the amount they can offer to players they draft as a signing bonus) by more than half, from $6.87 Million, to $3.37 million. Factoring in the money associated with these lost picks, this punishment is harsh and far reaching. The Astros will be feeling the trauma of this punishment for years to come. It’s conceivable that choosing to punish the Astros ability to rebuild instead of the players involved in the scandal hurts worse than fans now realize.
What if there was no punishment for this?
Operating under the assumption that knowing what pitch is coming is more beneficial to hitters than taking steroids, and that technology could freely steal signs, what would we see? First off, catchers would have to adapt their method of giving signs. No more hand signals from catchers, and while we’re at it, no more third base coaches touching their belt to tell the hitter to bunt.
What if catchers spoke their signs into a microphone in their mask communicating directly to the pitcher’s earpiece? But, what about language barriers? And could the catcher still yell instructions to the fielders if there a microphone blaring in the pitcher’s ear? (To clarify, the answer is yes, regardless of blaring).
Would these communications be secure enough? But what if these communications could be tapped into? The shift to technology assisted verbal signs from catcher to pitcher would necessitate elaborate divisions of sign stealers working to figure out opponents communication strategy, and prevent their own communications from being intercepted. The sign stealing arms race would commence. Some teams would be good at it, some teams would be bad at it (remember when the Phillies implemented defensive shifts, and it cost them runs?), but all of it would be riveting. It would be chaos.
But because it’s baseball, and it has been the same game we love for a hundred and fifty years, the league would never let these situations happen. Things will go back to normal, except going forward we will all make assumptions when we see strange gestures from cameramen, overly baggy uniforms on players – and strange flashing lights on the scoreboard.
Still, it makes me wonder what would happen in that first, hypothetical year of baseball allowing technology for sign stealing…who wins that World Series? The most talented baseball team, or the team with the best group of sign stealers?
THE PROTOCOL: the firm has four seats in Section 118 (Premium Lower Boxes), Rows 25 and 26. These are awesome seats directly below the press box and 25 rows behind home plate on the left side behind the screen. It is foul ball territory for left-handed batters so bring your glove – I have collected 16 foul balls myself over 19 years, and I am looking for more (although since the screens were raised in 2018 it’s become tougher to get a ball). If we can't use all the tickets ourselves (or clients and friends of the firm don't claim them by calling me and reserving a game), then my next step is to give the tickets TO THE FIRST PERSON WHO GETS BACK TO ME PROVIDED THAT THEY ARE SERIOUS. If you ask for the tickets and don't use them, you will be taken off the list unless there is a seriously good reason. There will be a wait list.
When there are four seats available (we split up a lot of games) we will allocate the tickets two and two if the first people back just want two tickets. You can also go for four and might get them. I'm the Czar, my call.