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Oracle Park is now open for baseball (no restrictions) but bring a mask if anti-vaccine idiots sneak into the stadium.
What can we expect from the 2021 Giants down the stretch?
On April 9th Fangraphs estimated that the San Francisco Giants had a 3.4 percent chance of making the postseason. Now, as baseball enters its post-All-Star-Game home stretch, the Giants have the best record in baseball. So much for that algorithm.
No one saw this season coming from the Giants. Even the Giants coaches and players who talked a big game in spring training deep-down didn’t expect this. The question now is how far the Giants can take it. Look at those same Fangraphs probabilities now.
Making the playoffs: 90.9 percent
The Giants’ schedule for the first three weeks of the second half is brutal [Cardinals, Pirates, Dodgers and Astros – all winning teams]. However, this team has fought through injuries, bad vibes, and the misguided wave at Oracle. The Giants are solid, talented, and well managed. If they can win 50 percent of their games for the rest of the year, that’s a 90 win season and at least the wild card. Winning the division is harder, but, as of Friday morning, the G-Men have a six-game lead in the wild card standings.
Winning the division: 15.7 percent
The Giants still have 10 games remaining with both the Dodgers and Padres in the final two-plus months as well as series with the Astros, Brewers, and A’s. Thankfully, the Giants will play nine more games against the Diamondbacks, otherwise (according to the national press), this would be the toughest remaining schedule for a legitimate contender in the NL.
There are positives from that tough schedule; the Giants will get seven shots at the Dodgers before August. If the Giants are healthy and playing like they did in the first half, success in those games will create a nice gap with the Dodgers we all would enjoy. As surprising as the Giants have been this year, the Dodgers and Padres have not played up to their hype. The Padres’ troubles at the plate and the Dodgers’ bullpen blues may not disappear, even if they make big trades at the deadline, because those problems are endemic of deeper issues (like being the Dodgers and having to deal with Trevor Bauer regularly).
Win the World Series: 2.3 percent
Really? Well, it’s up from 0.1 percent at the beginning of the season. This is where I part ways with the national scribes. The G-Men are a team with character. They are experienced, scrappy, well-managed and have made great use of analytics. Despite countless injuries and a steady stream of new players in the lineup, the G-men have the third-best OPS in baseball, bashing righties and putting up respectable numbers against lefties. The platoons are working. Plus, the Giants pitchers have the lowest WHIP in baseball and the second-best ERA. They are just solid. Since June 1, the Giants have the best bullpen ERA in the game.
Where’s this team’s weakness? You tell me. One guy goes down, and another comes up. Names like Flores, Dubon, Solano, Dickerson, Ruf, Slater, Wade Jr., Vosler, Estrada, La Stella and Dugger – added to Yaz, Crawford, Belt, Posey, and Longoria - are becoming household words in (as Herb Caen used to say) Baghdad by the Bay.
The Questions Remaining – this month at least
Can we take down the Dodgers?
The Dodgers have won the NL West eight years in a row. The Giants, who have been in first place since Memorial Day, are two games ahead of the Dodgers, but they’ll face the team that shall not be named in 7 of their first 13 games in the next three weeks. It will be a season-defining stretch for the Giants, which is 3-6 against LA this year.
What will we do at the Trade Deadline?
The Giants will end their series against the Dodgers one day before the July 30 Trade Deadline, so performance over the final two weeks of this month will almost certainly influence potential trade activity this year. If the G-Men continue to struggle in head-to-head matchups against the Dodgers and fall back in the standings, will they still be willing to make any big upgrades at the Trade Deadline? If they can’t beat the Dodgers and take the division, the Giants will likely face off against Yu Darvish and the Padres in the NL Wild Card Game, which could easily swing either way. What will Farhan do in the next three weeks is the question. Will he sacrifice the future for a starting pitcher now? The rumor mill keeps talking about Max Scherzer (I’m good with that). But,
Why Trade? Just get Guys back from the injury list.
The Giants are expecting to get injured players like Posey, Belt, Longoria and La Stella back in the second half (Tauchman is still down there also – he may be the best defensive outfielder in baseball) . The return of those players will create tough roster decisions for Zaidi and Kapler. Thanks to improved depth this year, the brain trust will have a tougher time keeping players as they get healthier. Wade Jr., for example, has been a revelation, but the Giants will have a tough time finding opportunities for him once Belt returns. The impending roster crunch also might not bode well for those who have struggled to find consistent grooves this year, including Dickerson and Solano.
These, and more questions, will get answered in the next three weeks. Needless to say, there is demand for tickets on all fronts, but The Czar has saved at least one game from every series for the faithful.
On the board ready to be picked up are:
Pirates [Friday, 7/23 at 6:45] – 4
Dodgers [Wednesday, 7/28 at 6:45] -4
Astros [Sunday, 8/1 at 1:05 – 4] – National Baseball Card Day
Ciao, and GO GIANTS!
The Czar
We use mail chimp so give permission for the blog to arrive in your mailbox if you want to receive the blog and participate in the fun. Past blogs can be found at www.beveragelaw.com at the Czar’s blog archive.
THE PROTOCOL: the firm has four seats in Section 118 (Premium Lower Boxes), Rows 25 and 26. These are awesome seats directly below the press box and 25 rows behind home plate on the left side behind the screen. It is foul ball territory for left-handed batters so bring your glove – I have collected 17 foul balls myself over 19 years, am looking for more and caught my latest ball at the Cards game on July 5th [film available!]. If we don’t use all the tickets ourselves (or clients and friends of the firm don't claim them by calling me and reserving a game), then my next step is to give the tickets TO THE FIRST PERSON WHO GETS BACK TO ME PROVIDED THAT THEY ARE SERIOUS. If you ask for the tickets and don't use them, you will be taken off the list unless there is a seriously good reason. There will be a wait list.
When there are four seats available (we split up a lot of games) we will allocate the tickets two and two if the first people back just want two tickets. You can also go for four and might get them. I'm the Czar, my call.